Is Trade No Longer the Engine of Global Economic Growth?
1. The Role of Trade as a Growth Engine in the Past From the late 20th century to the early 21st century, trade expansion was considered a key driver of global economic growth. As globalization progressed, trade barriers were lowered, and supply chains expanded, allowing businesses to focus on low-cost production and market expansion. This trend provided growth opportunities for both developed and emerging economies, fostering economic cooperation and mutual development. For instance, reports from the IMF and World Bank indicate that from the 1990s to the mid-2000s, global trade grew faster than global GDP, playing a crucial role in driving economic growth. 2. The Rise of Protectionism and the Slowdown of Trade as an Engine However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, protectionism began to re-emerge. Major economies, including the United States, started to impose trade barriers to address trade deficits and protect domestic industries, disrupting global trade flows. Notably,...